Wells Fargo Sees Starlink Reaching 46.7 Million Users by 2028

Wells Fargo’s forecast puts Starlink on a steep growth path: the SpaceX broadband service could reach 46.7 million subscribers by the end of 2028, up from 17 million at the end of 2026. The bank projects revenue rising from $19.1 billion at the end of this year to $30.2 billion in 2027 and $51.455 billion in 2028. Those figures describe a rapid expansion in both customers and sales, but they’re projections, not a record of results already achieved. Their value lies partly in showing how much growth Wells Fargo believes the service could support—and how many practical conditions sit behind that belief.

The subscriber forecast implies that Starlink would need to add tens of millions of users in a relatively short span. That takes more than demand: a satellite broadband provider has to build and maintain network capacity, reach customers in markets where the service can be sold, and keep the product useful as its user base grows. Revenue growth also depends on what customers pay and which services they buy, details the figures here don’t break out. So the headline numbers point to a large opportunity, while leaving the mechanics of converting that opportunity into sales largely unanswered.

What the forecast assumes about growth

Subscriber counts and revenue are related, but they’re not interchangeable measures. A larger customer base can support higher sales, yet the revenue path also reflects the mix of customers and the amount each contributes. Without further detail, it isn’t possible to tell how much of the projected increase comes from adding subscribers, changing the service mix, or other sources of revenue. That limits what readers can infer from the totals alone.

The forecast also gives a specific year-end figure for subscribers in 2026 and then a later target for 2028. That framing makes the projected pace easy to see, but it doesn’t explain how growth would be distributed between those points. Customer additions could vary over time, and the article’s figures don’t identify the markets or customer groups expected to account for them. The gap between a broad forecast and a detailed operating plan matters: the former signals confidence, while the latter would help explain the path.

There’s a further distinction between reaching more potential customers and serving more paying customers well. Broadband networks have to manage shared capacity, so additional demand can create pressure if network resources don’t grow along with it. Satellite service has its own technical and deployment constraints, and the source doesn’t quantify how those might affect the forecast. The subscriber target therefore depends on execution as well as market interest.

Spectrum could add capacity—and complexity

Part of the forecast rests on possible access to more spectrum. Wells Fargo points to low-band holdings from ATEX and NextNav, as well as an estimated 50 MHz of underused UHF spectrum in the 470–600 MHz range. The bank says the Edgebeam consortium could cover more than 80 percent of the population using that spectrum, representing another 14 billion MHz-POP and a possible valuation of about $30 billion. These are separate claims about potential coverage, spectrum quantity and valuation; they don’t, by themselves, establish that the spectrum will become available to Starlink or be put to a use that supports its projected growth.

Spectrum is the radio frequency resource that wireless systems use to carry signals. Its characteristics affect how signals travel and what equipment can receive them, while the amount available can shape how much traffic a network can support. More spectrum can therefore help address capacity limits, but it isn’t a simple matter of adding a fixed amount of bandwidth and getting a matching increase in service. The outcome depends on how the frequencies can be used, what devices support them and how the network is designed to operate.

The MHz-POP figure is a way to combine spectrum bandwidth with population coverage. It can help describe the scale of a spectrum opportunity, but it shouldn’t be read as a count of customers, a measure of network throughput, or proof of commercial availability. Likewise, the possible $30 billion valuation is Wells Fargo’s estimate tied to the opportunity described. It doesn’t establish a completed transaction or guarantee that a buyer could capture that value.

That opportunity comes with obstacles. Broadcasters would need to sell spectrum despite existing plans to monetize it, and the FCC could opt for another incentive auction, which Wells Fargo says might take more than five years. Frequencies below 600 MHz may also require handsets to use specialized antennas with higher power demands. Each issue touches a different part of the chain: spectrum owners must be willing to sell, a process must make the frequencies available, and devices must be able to use them in a practical way.

Low-frequency spectrum can be attractive because its signal propagation may suit broad coverage, but that general advantage doesn’t settle the engineering question raised here. Specialized antennas and higher power demands could affect handset design and battery use. That’s a meaningful qualification for a service whose reach depends on compatible customer equipment. If you're working in this space, the key question isn’t just how much spectrum exists; it’s whether it can be acquired, integrated into the network and supported by devices people will actually use.

The gap between spectrum potential and service capacity

Wells Fargo’s account describes a sequence of dependencies, not a single switch that Starlink can flip. Spectrum may be identified as underused, but its current holders can have their own commercial plans. A sale or auction may be needed, and the outcome would have to make the frequencies usable for the intended service. Device compatibility then adds another condition. Each step could affect timing, cost or the amount of capacity that ultimately becomes available.

(and this is the part most people overlook) Coverage and capacity are different questions. A spectrum plan that could reach a large share of the population doesn’t automatically mean it can provide the same level of service everywhere, or handle all the demand that a large subscriber base might generate. Coverage describes where a signal may be available; capacity concerns how much traffic the network can serve under actual conditions. The source gives a population coverage estimate, but it doesn’t provide a corresponding estimate of user capacity or service quality.

That distinction makes the spectrum discussion relevant to the subscriber forecast, but it doesn’t show that the forecast depends entirely on this one opportunity. The source says the growth projection partly rests on possible spectrum access. It doesn’t specify how much growth would be possible without that access, what alternatives are available, or how the forecast changes if the process takes longer. Those unanswered questions make the spectrum timeline one of the forecast’s central uncertainties.

What the forecast signals—and what remains open

This is more significant than it looks because the figures tie commercial ambition to infrastructure questions. A projection of 46.7 million subscribers suggests a service expected to operate at far greater scale, while the revenue path implies that Wells Fargo sees substantial room for sales to rise alongside that expansion. Yet the spectrum opportunity is conditional, and the available details don’t connect each technical milestone to a specific number of customers or dollars.

For readers, the forecast is best understood as a scenario with dependencies. The subscriber and revenue estimates show the growth Wells Fargo considers possible. The spectrum discussion identifies one potential source of additional capacity, along with barriers involving sellers, the FCC process and compatible devices. Here's the thing: a large addressable opportunity can make a forecast plausible without making it certain. The source doesn’t establish when those dependencies would be resolved, or whether they’ll be resolved on terms that support the projected pace.

Starlink’s projected growth is striking, but spectrum access remains a key variable: the potential capacity gains depend on availability, a workable sale process and compatible devices. The figures are ambitious. The missing link is a demonstrated path from spectrum access to enough usable network capacity, and then from that capacity to the projected subscriber and revenue totals.