Forecast: 47m Starlink subs by 2028

Investment bank Wells Fargo, in its latest forecast for SpaceX, suggests that the operator’s Starlink broadband service will continue to expand. It suggests that subscriber/user numbers will grow from 17 million by the end of 2026 to 46.7 million by 2028.

Revenues will grow commensurately, from $19.1 billion (€16.7bn) at the end of this year to $30.2 billion at the end of 2027 and $51.455 billion by the end of 2028.

Wells Fargo also poses some key expectations, mostly in regard to possible changes in spectrum access which could be advantageous for SpaceX. It states: “Additional availability of low-band (<1000 MHz frequency bands) spectrum includes holdings from ATEX and NextNav. We’ve also analyzed the TV Broadcast industry spectrum, which we estimate has close to 50 MHz of under-/un-utilized UHF spectrum in the ~470-600 MHz range. We believe the Edgebeam consortium will reach 80 percent+ POP coverage on this available 50 MHz, implying another 14 billion MHz-POP (and maybe ~$30 billion valuation).”

The bank’s report admits that there could be challenges: “However, the Broadcast spectrum could be complicated:

1.) getting the industry to be sellers vs. their current business case monetisation plans;

2.) the FCC may prefer to instead do another Incentive Auction, which would take a while (5+ years); and

3.) <600 MHz frequency band may require handsets to use unique antennas with higher power requirements.”

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