Starlink adding 18,700 subs per day

SpaceX will release its Q3 numbers on October 20th, and analysts are expecting the rocket-to-broadband-to AI business to declare around another 1.7 million net new Starlink subscribers, to the 12 million announced at the end of Q2.

The service is currently adding around 18,700 new subscribers per day.

· 2023: 2.3 million
· 2024: 4.4 million
· 2025: 8.9 million
· Q1 2026: 10.3 million
· Q2 2026: 12 million

The Starlink growth is being adided by wider global distribution and a lowering of annual subscriber fees (down from $99 per month in the US, for example, to $66) and reflecting further growth on consumer revenues which achieved 44 per cent growth in Q2 to $2.4 billion in Q2.

Consensus expectations from bank analysts suggests overall revenue for Q3 in the $12.6-$13.4 billion range and with AI numbers of about $7.6 billion, ‘Connectivity’ at $4.9 billion and space-related at $1.3 billion.

Elon Musk has said that SpaceX could make $1 trillion in revenue in 2030.

However, while unlikely to show up in this Q3’s numbers, it seems that some nations, notably in Europe, are resisting Starlink’s charms. The past few days have seen Eutelsat’s share price rise by some 28 per cent helped by unconfirmed news that its OneWeb constellation could be an alternative for Ukraine. Eutelsat will reveal its quarterly results on October 29th, and more news might emerge as to its OneWeb progress.

Moreover, Poland has stressed that it wants to develop its own alternative to Starlink. Poland is already financing Starlink usage and equipment for Ukraine, but its Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk recently revealed that initial discussions had already taken place and offers had been received. Funding is in place, and he said that the technical architecture is planned.

Germany’s army is already doing the same and Europe is building IRIS2, its EU-wide constellation of secure low Earth orbiting satellites which before the end of this decade will supply an independent satellite system.

Then there’s Canada. Canadians are increasingly upset over US President Donald Trump’s treatment of the country and there are many voices saying that Telesat’s Lightspeed broadband-by-satellite system cannot happen quickly enough so that they can ban Starlink. Lightspeed is likely to offer a full global service during early 2028.

Europe is also backing a fast-track move to bring together three space businesses, Airbus and Thales of France and Italy’s Leonardo into one super rocket-to-satellite business. The concept, with the working name of Project Bromo would result in a company that is absolved of anti-trust obligations and potentially be Europe’s response to SpaceX. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has backed the project. “These are the types of industrial champions we need if Europe is to lead in the space economy of tomorrow,” she said at an international space summit in Paris last month, citing Bromo by name.

Few doubt the various intentions to create a viable alternate to Starlink, but the time it will take is the challenge to be overcome, and not least finding an independent rocket launcher to get a fleet into orbit.

Categories: Blogs, Broadband, Inside Satellite, Satellite

Tags: canada, eutelsat, LEO, satellite, spacex, starlink

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